How we score a case
Tabloids hype every case equally; skeptic blogs dismiss every case equally. We'd rather grade them, on the same four axes, with the same yardstick, whether the case flatters our priors or not. The Signal Strength badge on each case is the result.
This is a judgment tool, not a physics constant. Reasonable people will argue a notch either way, and we'd rather you argue with a number than with a vibe. Every score is defended by the article's own sourcing. And a low score is never a verdict that nothing happened, it just means the public evidence is thin right now. Scores go up when better evidence surfaces.
The four dimensions
Witnesses
Who saw it, how many, and how reliable are they?
- Strong
- Multiple independent witnesses, ideally trained observers (pilots, military, police) with no shared incentive to coordinate.
- Moderate
- Several witnesses, or a small number of high-credibility ones.
- Weak
- One or two witnesses, or accounts dependent on hypnosis / recovered memory.
- None
- No direct human witnesses on record.
Instrumentation
Is there hard sensor data, not just testimony?
- Strong
- Clear radar, infrared, or photographic capture, ideally multi-sensor.
- Moderate
- Some instrument data or physical traces collected (radiation, soil, injuries).
- Weak
- Disputed photos, behavioral evidence (e.g. polygraphs), or weak traces.
- None
- Testimony only; no sensors or physical evidence.
Official record
Did a government or institution document or acknowledge it?
- Strong
- Formal government files, an official investigation, or an on-record acknowledgment.
- Moderate
- Logged by an agency or formal body without a firm conclusion.
- Weak
- Mentioned in records, or acknowledged only informally / years later.
- None
- No official documentation.
Stands up to scrutiny
How well does it hold up against the best prosaic explanation?
- Strong
- Leading mundane explanations have been tested and fail to account for the core facts.
- Moderate
- A prosaic explanation exists and fits part of the case, but leaves a real residue.
- Weak
- A strong prosaic explanation covers most of it.
- None
- A prosaic or fabricated explanation is well-established.
From points to a tier
Each dimension scores 0 (None) to 3 (Strong), for a total out of 12. The total maps to one headline tier:
- Well-Documented
- 10-12
- Strong on most axes. Hard to dismiss without ignoring evidence.
- Credible
- 7-9
- Genuine evidentiary weight, with open questions.
- Contested
- 4-6
- Real but disputed, depends heavily on which evidence you trust.
- Thin
- 0-3
- Little hard support, or a strong prosaic / fabrication case.
Think a score is wrong? Good, that's the point of showing it. The tip line is open, and every claim behind a score is linked in The Receipts.