How we score a case
Tabloids hype every case equally; skeptic blogs dismiss every case equally. We'd rather grade them — on the same four axes, with the same yardstick, whether the case flatters our priors or not. The Signal Strength badge on each case is the result.
This is a judgment tool, not a physics constant. Reasonable people will argue a notch either way — and we'd rather you argue with a number than with a vibe. Every score is defended by the article's own sourcing.
The four dimensions
Witnesses
Who saw it, how many, and how reliable are they?
- Strong
- Multiple independent witnesses, ideally trained observers (pilots, military, police) with no shared incentive to coordinate.
- Moderate
- Several witnesses, or a small number of high-credibility ones.
- Weak
- One or two witnesses, or accounts dependent on hypnosis / recovered memory.
- None
- No direct human witnesses on record.
Instrumentation
Is there hard sensor data — not just testimony?
- Strong
- Clear radar, infrared, or photographic capture, ideally multi-sensor.
- Moderate
- Some instrument data or physical traces collected (radiation, soil, injuries).
- Weak
- Disputed photos, behavioral evidence (e.g. polygraphs), or weak traces.
- None
- Testimony only; no sensors or physical evidence.
Official record
Did a government or institution document or acknowledge it?
- Strong
- Formal government files, an official investigation, or an on-record acknowledgment.
- Moderate
- Logged by an agency or formal body without a firm conclusion.
- Weak
- Mentioned in records, or acknowledged only informally / years later.
- None
- No official documentation.
Debunk-resistance
How well does it survive the best prosaic explanation?
- Strong
- Leading mundane explanations have been tested and fail to account for the core facts.
- Moderate
- A prosaic explanation exists and fits part of the case, but leaves a real residue.
- Weak
- A strong prosaic explanation covers most of it.
- None
- A prosaic or fabricated explanation is well-established.
From points to a tier
Each dimension scores 0 (None) to 3 (Strong), for a total out of 12. The total maps to one headline tier:
- Well-Documented
- 10–12
- Strong on most axes. Hard to dismiss without ignoring evidence.
- Credible
- 7–9
- Genuine evidentiary weight, with open questions.
- Contested
- 4–6
- Real but disputed — depends heavily on which evidence you trust.
- Thin
- 0–3
- Little hard support, or a strong prosaic / fabrication case.
Think a score is wrong? Good — that's the point of showing it. The tip line is open, and every claim behind a score is linked in The Receipts.